ISW has not observed evidence to support Gerasimov’s claims. ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized roughly 23 percent of Vovchansk. ISW has only observed footage from October 24 showing limited Russian forces operating in eastern Kostyantynivka after a likely infiltration mission and has not observed evidence of Russian forces operating within Siversk.[14] The Kremlin is also portraying the seizures of small settlements that are not operationally significant as major successes for informational effects. Dronivka is under six square kilometers in size, and Pleshchiivka is under four square kilometers. Both had a pre-war population of about 600 people.

The Kremlin is exploiting Russia’s recent reliance on infiltration missions and the absence of contiguous front lines in some tactical areas, as well as the resulting interspersal of forces to make exaggerated battlefield claims.

…

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are making gains near and within Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad that are tactically significant but likely do not portend the imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area.[16] Ukrainian and Russian sources have noted how both sides’ positions are intermingled, making it difficult, if not impossible, to determine the exact contours of the frontline.[17] Russian forces have been increasingly leveraging infiltrations between Ukrainian positions to make false claims of advances and consolidated gains.[18] Putin’s and Gerasimov’s claims of battlefield victories are part of the ongoing Kremlin cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray a Russian victory as inevitable, such that Ukraine and the West should concede to Russia’s demands now.[19]