A year ago predictions were late 2025/early 2026. However this was people who only look at public satellite images (those with access to classified information are of course not talking) . We saw a sharp drop in artillery numbers 4-5 months ago, so likely Russia has been entering the “we have to conserve what we have left” phase, just like they did with tanks over a year ago. They still have and use tanks, but now they have to consider risks of losing them and so they are much more careful.

Recent reports make me suspect Ukraine has found ways to attack artillery at longer distances and Russia has not yet adjusted. However maybe Russia is just deciding to risk more of it again. Remember, I’m not in the military and I don’t have access to anything classified, so my guess could be way off.