While Israel basically tricked America into starting this war,
I’m happy with most of your analysis, but this bit bugs me. It seems like a lot of people are eager to avoid American agency when it comes to Trump and his actions - he’s dismissed as a literal agent of Putin, the Russians are blamed for having manipulated the electorate, Musk interfered with the election count directly, it’s all the billionaries’ fault. And now America was apparently “tricked” into killing the leaders of a government by that very government.
I’m not offering speculative analysis with this point. The administration made this point:
Rubio contradicting themselves on this point one day after making it
No, America owns this.
Sure, in an existential sense I agree, but what then? Like what do I do with that conclusion that furthers my understanding? as in if I were to take this form of reductive analysis to geopolitics, how does that impact my ability to predict future states of the world? I take something like this sentiment and I ask “does this sentiment add to my models capacity to predict or does it detract?”
I would say this form of reductionism drops my predictive capacity to practically nothing. I can’t make predictions of future states or back test previous states of the world effectively in that framework. Its a form of cliche or jingoism, which while emotionally satisfying, effectively halts critical thinking. Like it might be a more conscilient or parsimonious explanation, but parsimony and consilience are irrelevant if the models they are a being used to value aren’t predictive. What matters first in a model is predictive capacity. After that you can update other values. But if the first thing you value in a model isn’t predicative capacity in some manner, you aren’t operating in the real world, by definition. You’re valuing something other than a models ability to predict reality (simplicity of the model, or ones ability to understand the model, or how well the model rhymes with other things you think you know).
Like what do I do with that conclusion that furthers my understanding?
You miss my point. I’m not suggesting something to be done, that’s out of scope of my objection. I’m saying what you should stop doing. Stop portraying America as the poor innocent victim of those duplicitous Israelis. America should know better.
No, I don’t think that I do. I’m countering that I think what you offer has no real value, doesn’t contributes to understanding and by following that frame work, you feed into the outcomes you allege to be against.
Its not only worthless, its actually less than worthless, because by adopting that framework, you actually cut against your own alleged goals.
Its a reactionary mentality embedded in emotionalism. Just like the those who like to blame voters for the results of 2024 or the people who blame consumers for the failures of recycling in the 1990’s, but can’t offer a functional mechanism for how blaming those parties to the system would contribute to different outcomes.
Israel absolutely tricked the US into this engagement, which most analysts have known was something Israel has wanted for decades. America as a state is utterly cuckolded to Israel for the purposes of this engagement. They aren’t in control of their own foreign policy. Just and just as well, a vocal majority of EU states are cuckolded to the US and seem to be getting dragged in as well, to greater or lessor extents, with few exceptions (Spain, Ireland, Norway). Do they not have agency? Or is agency the wrong way to think about these things if you want a predictive framework that is effective at capturing previous and future states?
Israel absolutely tricked the US into this engagement, which most analysts have known was something Israel has wanted for decades.
If most analysts knew it, then how did Israel trick them?
America as a state is utterly cuckolded to Israel for the purposes of this engagement. They aren’t in control of their own foreign policy.
How? Is America not a big, powerful country, with politicians that serve its own interests? You’re saying it’s some kind of satellite, a vassal state, of Big Bad Puppetmaster Israel? America couldn’t have said “no”?
No, this is a worthless analysis. This is completely disregarding America’s own agency here, its own motives. America did this. America wanted this. And this attempt to place the blame anywhere but where it belongs is, frankly, pathetic. It’s no better than Trump himself scrambling to find anyone he can to blame for his own failures and problems.
Just and just as well, a vocal majority of EU states are cuckolded to the US and seem to be getting dragged in as well, to greater or lessor extents, with few exceptions (Spain, Ireland, Norway). Do they not have agency?
I have yet to see any of those EU states get dragged in. Even the UK, widely considered an American lapdog, has managed to keep fairly clean so far.
But if perchance one of them does turn completely stupid and get involved then be that on their heads. They will be responsible for their own actions and they will deserve the consequences. It’ll be nobody else’s fault but their own.
I’m happy with most of your analysis, but this bit bugs me. It seems like a lot of people are eager to avoid American agency when it comes to Trump and his actions - he’s dismissed as a literal agent of Putin, the Russians are blamed for having manipulated the electorate, Musk interfered with the election count directly, it’s all the billionaries’ fault. And now America was apparently “tricked” into killing the leaders of a government by that very government.
No, America owns this.
I’m not offering speculative analysis with this point. The administration made this point:
Rubio contradicting themselves on this point one day after making it
Sure, in an existential sense I agree, but what then? Like what do I do with that conclusion that furthers my understanding? as in if I were to take this form of reductive analysis to geopolitics, how does that impact my ability to predict future states of the world? I take something like this sentiment and I ask “does this sentiment add to my models capacity to predict or does it detract?”
I would say this form of reductionism drops my predictive capacity to practically nothing. I can’t make predictions of future states or back test previous states of the world effectively in that framework. Its a form of cliche or jingoism, which while emotionally satisfying, effectively halts critical thinking. Like it might be a more conscilient or parsimonious explanation, but parsimony and consilience are irrelevant if the models they are a being used to value aren’t predictive. What matters first in a model is predictive capacity. After that you can update other values. But if the first thing you value in a model isn’t predicative capacity in some manner, you aren’t operating in the real world, by definition. You’re valuing something other than a models ability to predict reality (simplicity of the model, or ones ability to understand the model, or how well the model rhymes with other things you think you know).
You miss my point. I’m not suggesting something to be done, that’s out of scope of my objection. I’m saying what you should stop doing. Stop portraying America as the poor innocent victim of those duplicitous Israelis. America should know better.
No, I don’t think that I do. I’m countering that I think what you offer has no real value, doesn’t contributes to understanding and by following that frame work, you feed into the outcomes you allege to be against.
Its not only worthless, its actually less than worthless, because by adopting that framework, you actually cut against your own alleged goals.
Its a reactionary mentality embedded in emotionalism. Just like the those who like to blame voters for the results of 2024 or the people who blame consumers for the failures of recycling in the 1990’s, but can’t offer a functional mechanism for how blaming those parties to the system would contribute to different outcomes.
Israel absolutely tricked the US into this engagement, which most analysts have known was something Israel has wanted for decades. America as a state is utterly cuckolded to Israel for the purposes of this engagement. They aren’t in control of their own foreign policy. Just and just as well, a vocal majority of EU states are cuckolded to the US and seem to be getting dragged in as well, to greater or lessor extents, with few exceptions (Spain, Ireland, Norway). Do they not have agency? Or is agency the wrong way to think about these things if you want a predictive framework that is effective at capturing previous and future states?
If most analysts knew it, then how did Israel trick them?
How? Is America not a big, powerful country, with politicians that serve its own interests? You’re saying it’s some kind of satellite, a vassal state, of Big Bad Puppetmaster Israel? America couldn’t have said “no”?
No, this is a worthless analysis. This is completely disregarding America’s own agency here, its own motives. America did this. America wanted this. And this attempt to place the blame anywhere but where it belongs is, frankly, pathetic. It’s no better than Trump himself scrambling to find anyone he can to blame for his own failures and problems.
I have yet to see any of those EU states get dragged in. Even the UK, widely considered an American lapdog, has managed to keep fairly clean so far.
But if perchance one of them does turn completely stupid and get involved then be that on their heads. They will be responsible for their own actions and they will deserve the consequences. It’ll be nobody else’s fault but their own.