The EU may well receive Ukraine as a candidate for accession and then leave it to rot in the antechamber, just as happened with Turkey. Right now, the EU is structurally not equipped to deal with Ukraine.

Despite pro-Ukrainian virtue signalling at European summits and on social media, the tone is likely to change once member states are presented with the bill for Ukraine’s EU accession. Germany and the other net contributors to the union’s budget would have to bear the brunt of the cost – at a time when their own economic models are coming under strain. Would Poland and Hungary be happy to give up their current status as net recipients of funds from the EU budget for the sake of Ukraine? Would Italy agree to become an even larger net contributor?

As a country with 43 million inhabitants, Ukraine would displace Poland as the fifth-largest EU member, after Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Ukraine’s accession would dilute existing voting shares in the Council of Ministers, one of the two decision-making bodies of the EU.

I believe there is a solution. The EU could adopt a two-tier membership structure – a fortified eurozone at the centre and an outer group of members. Ukraine could join that second group. The frequently used word “associate member” would be too dismissive for what this would entail. A separation of the EU into inner and outer groupings would include the customs union, the single market, and structural and regional aid for everybody. If the core group assigned itself an autonomous fiscal union, it could raise funds, on the EU’s behalf, to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukraine, along with other countries in the outer group, would have full voting rights on all issues except the monetary and fiscal union, which would not include them. In turn, they would enjoy a higher degree of national sovereignty in economic policy.

I am not pretending that this would be easy to agree on. As long as people are under the delusion that the recovery fund can act as a blueprint for a common European fiscal policy, there will be no pressure in favour of a formal treaty change. But it is not possible for this delusion to persist forever. The cost of maintaining the status quo will eventually become apparent: it will be an EU that disappoints; an EU with a diminished global role; and an EU that does not include Ukraine.

  • bstix@feddit.dk
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    1 year ago

    It’s going to take some time. No need to come up with alternative solutions as of now. It took the EU 6 months just to confirm the application. Lots of things will happen before they are able to join.

    Like everyone else they have 35 chapters to fulfill. Financial control being one that is currently critical. The GPD pr. Capita in Ukraine is about a tenth of the average on EU. This won’t go well unless they manage to improve significantly.

    However they are still closer than Turkey even though Turkey applied in 1987…

    The current score is: 5/35 Ukraine 0/35 Turkey.

    • cleric_splash@lemmy.worldOP
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      1 year ago

      Ukraine is not very democratic seeing as they actively persecute the left, lack of political freedom is a fact to consider and that’s largely what’s holding Turkiye back. Anything left-wing is Ukraine is labeled “russian propaganda” by the far-right elites.

      EDIT: Apologies, I forgot we are not allowed to bring up anything negative about Ukraine.

      • bossito@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        How can you hold a country suffering a brutal invasion on such standards. The “persecuted left” were Kremlin puppets. Zelensky’s party is a center-party. This is just spreading the Kremlin talking points.

        • VariousWorldViews@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          Equaling “the left” to “kremlin puppets” prevents any form of discussion, it creates an echo chamber where leftists have no voice. Imagine if a leftist country equalled “the right” to “American puppets”? That’s already happening and those countries are called anti-democratic for that reason.

          And Ukraine was already persecuting its left wing politicians long before they were invaded. The war is unrelated.

          • Riddick3001@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            an echo chamber where leftists have no voice.

            Maybe the echo you’re hearing is that of your own voice, and you’re imagining you’re in an echo-Chamber?

            Dude just stop your propaganda. What is even a " leftist"? Half of Europe is left leaning.

            • Riddick3001@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              Dude just stop your propaganda. What is even a " rightist"? Half of Europe is right leaning.

              Ah, you didn’t like what I said? I thought it was funny, as you like talking about echo-chambers so much;)

              Still, you never gave me an answer.

              • SCB@lemmy.world
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                1 year ago

                Ukraine is at war right now because they ousted a literal puppet government from Russia. One can see how they might be a bit testy about “leftists” - by which you certainly mean actual communists - which… Duh.

                • Riddick3001@lemmy.world
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                  1 year ago

                  Ukraine is at war right now because they ousted a literal puppet government from Russia. One can see how they might be a bit testy about “leftists” - by which you certainly mean actual communists.

                  Ehm …you saying this to me or the other guy? Cause in an earlier comment I said something similar like you, but the other guy didn’t like my response.

            • VariousWorldViews@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              Maybe the echo you’re hearing is that of your own voice, and you’re imagining you’re in an echo-Chamber?

              Dude just stop your propaganda. What is even a " rightist"? Half of Europe is right leaning.

      • Riddick3001@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        EDIT: Apologies, I forgot we are not allowed to bring up anything negative about Ukraine.

        Dude be straight and get real. This isn’t about you apologising, nor is it about the EU or Ukraine. It’s about you saying that Ukraine isn’t democratic while they are in a war?!

        The whole issue of an EU full membership isn’t an issue now, becasue all the obvious reasons. Also, like it’s been indicated 1000 times, the EU needs some restructuring first. So there is that.

        • cleric_splash@lemmy.worldOP
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          1 year ago

          You’re engaging in whataboutism, I could maybe understand mentioning Russia and China but why even North Korea?

          I direct you to please read the rules of this community.

  • hark@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    The west is content with merely using Ukraine for a proxy war with Russia, just like they were with using Afghanistan in the 80s. They’ll dangle rewards, but it’ll come with additional cost.