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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • I don’t think tomorrow is what most have claimed, but maybe “any time now”, which has kind of been true for the past year.
    The signs have been clear for a couple of years now, that the Russian economy can’t handle the war effort against Ukraine in the long run. But the time scale is very hard to predict, if not outright impossible. But in the beginning we knew that when the war chest Putin had saved up was dry, it would only be a matter of time before the Russian economy would see a steep downturn, those early predictions have come true.
    But if for instance we get an extremely mild winter, Russia might actually push through it this year too.
    But the way it looks, the infrastructure is collapsing, one aspect is that Russia commonly has centralized heating plants, that supply hot water to apartments. These are often based on waste heat from electricity production. And we known in many areas they are behind on maintenance of those, which potentially can leave people without both electricity and heat.
    How bad this goes is hard to predict, but we are seeing problems already, despite we are only just out of maintenance season!
    The Russian economy, infrastructure and population have been stretched beyond their limits for some time now, the real question is when the parts begin to snap.
    I am pretty certain this winter will do it to a big enough degree on the economy and infrastructure for the population to snap too.
    The story from the power plant where the workers strike is an example of it. Remember this is GRU (KGB) country, workers don’t complain unless they have really really serious reasons to do so. If you complain you risk going to prison, and going to prison is almost like a death sentence in Russia.





  • The Russian economy was already strained by the war and sanctions. But now the Russian economy is outright collapsing. Ukraine’s attacks and sanctions have cut Russian oil exports in half compared to the beginning of the war, and in the same time the price has dropped to half.
    That means that oil exports are only worth a fourth now compared to the beginning of the war!
    But it is not only oil, it is EVERYTHING!

    Russian oligarchs overall are estimated to have lost about half their net worth!:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_billionaires

    As shown in my original post, Russian companies are now at a point where they can’t pay workers, transportation is failing, and some people can’t even get food reliably.

    There were recent stories about how Russians in certain regions wouldn’t have power or water or heat due to “planned” maintenance. Except this is not possibly planned maintenance, because that is ALWAYS done in the summertime!

    Russia is out of options to cover the deficits in creative ways. From now on they will have almost immediate effect, and old deficits will catch up too, and the whole thing will probably collapse over the next 3-6 months, or earlier if the Russian people decide they’ve had enough.





  • As I’ve been posting many times before, many workers in Russia are behind on payments. People working in factories being 3 months behind is not uncommon.
    Anna from Ukraine explains the situation here. She is an excellent source, because her English is excellent, and being Ukrainian she understands Russian, and makes frequent news updates about the situation in Russia.

    Anton Gerashchenko on Bluesky confirms the story with documentation:
    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m56ndvbujs2i
    The post contains video from the situation.

    Inside Russia on youtube was first to report on the Russian population beginning to have had enough to a degree they are actually beginning to complain:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoR5_bJywWQ

    I’ve claimed before I don’t think Putin will last through the winter, and I see this as the first signs that the Russian people is about to have had enough.
    The story reported by Anna tells that the workers are at least 2 months behind on wages, they were promised transportation to work, something that is important because of the lack of fuel, and public transport becoming unreliable. But they do not get the promised transportation. They were also promised 1 hot meal per day, but do not receive that either.
    Finally in their homes, they are out of water and heat.

    This is the economic and infrastructure collapse many have predicted was inevitable, that is now beginning to really show. And it isn’t even really winter yet!