Probably.
More probable than the scenario you’re painting. I mean, if Biden did have anything to do with that, he wouldn’t put a spotlight on it by tweeting about it. (And no, don’t start to accuse him with “distraction” or “false flag” tactics, that’s just doubling down with conspiracy theories, we’re better than that)
Nice choice of the word/idiom cudgel, since a cudgel is a small (child?) version of a weapon.