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Cake day: July 26th, 2023

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  • If you want some timelines, summer 2025 is where I expect Russia to run out of steam. That’s when they will have gone through pretty much all USSR equipment they had and they are not producing nearly enough to keep up with the current rate of attrition. It will also be the 4th year of war, so also the 4th year of sanctions. Remember that when those sanctions were put into place, they immediately said it would take time before they started to really hurt. Well, they are hurting in a significant way already and the noose is only getting tighter. I think they might just make it to the end of 2025, but I don’t see them keeping up the war into 2026 unless China steps in and starts supplying military aid.

    There are a lot of aspects to this war, but I think the combination of running out of money, people and military hardware has to lead to some serious reconsideration of their approach.

    But the regime won’t survive not winning the war, so we’ll see. Just don’t expect that whomever replaces Putin will be less dangerous. They are more likely to be truly extreme, rather than only cynically so.