• 0 Posts
  • 31 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 16th, 2023

help-circle



  • No, that’s not a real problem either. Model search techniques are very mature, the first automated tools for this were released in the 90s, they’ve only gotten better.

    AI can’t ‘train itself’, there is no training required for an optimization problem. A system that queries the value of the objective function - “how good is this solution” - then tweaks parameters according to the optimization algorithm - traffic light timings - and queries the objective function again isn’t training itself, it isn’t learning, it is centuries-old mathematics.

    There’s a lot of intentional and unintentional misinformation around what “AI” is, what it can do, and what it can do that is actually novel. Beyond Generative AI - the new craze - most of what is packaged as AI are mature algorithms applied to an old problem in a stagnant field and then repackaged as a corporate press release.

    Take drug discovery. No “AI” didn’t just make 50 new antibiotics, they just hired a chemist who graduated in the last decade who understands commercial retrosynthetic search tools and who asked the biopharma guy what functional groups they think would work.




  • Victoria 3 was just boring - I say this as a huge fan of Victoria 2.

    I played a few weeks after launch, and - for every one of the 4 countries I tried (Russia, Japan, Denmark, Spain), simply building all the things everywhere and ignoring money made everything trivial.

    The economic simulation was super barebones, the entire thing could be bootstrapped just by building. An entire population of illiterate farmers would become master architects overnight and send GDP to the double digit billions in a few decades.


  • Yes, you can make the argument that a hyper-modern vehicle is a vastly more effective weapons system, so the disparity in cost is justified.

    That isn’t what we are seeing in Ukraine - relatively modern NATO-standard tanks are being knocked out by old artillery, immobilized by old mines, and killed by cheap drones. Industrial warfare in the vein of WWI and WWII is clearly not dead yet.

    This isn’t to say Russia would win a direct conventional war against the west, but we also can’t sit here smugly and claim it would be a steamroll like Gulf Storm given the observations from Ukraine.


  • The raw spending figure isn’t what is important, but the PPP figure. Russia’s economy is about 1/5th the size of the EU’s in PPP, and its defense sector is vastly more efficient on a monetary basis than the west - The US alone has given Ukraine close to $60 billion and it is a fraction of the hardware that Russia has produced with fewer dollars.

    This isn’t a ‘Russia stronk, Europe bad’ post, it just bears emphasizing that Russia has a large industrial base and has brought much of it into arms production over the past two years. The West hasn’t, and defense procurement remains an almost artisanal process where high tech goods are bought - in low volumes - at inflated prices.






  • With refresh rates like that, you must be talking about LED billboards.

    These are different from consumer monitors, which mostly use constant LED backlights and a liquid crystal layer to determine color.

    An LED bilboard is going to have a fuckton of singular LEDs - each of which can emit exactly one color - arranged in groups to form full pixels capable of displaying many colors. There is no extra LCD layer between your eyes and the billboard LEDs.

    The reason for the high refresh rates is because each led must be extinguished and and relit to redraw the image, and the eye is very good at picking up this strobe effect.

    The difference vs. a consumer display is that the backlight in a typical monitor is constant. Refreshes the screen involves sending updated instructions to the LCD layer, twisting the crystals and possibly changing the color they allow through.

    To make a crude concrete example:

    Imagine I am shining a white flashlight in your face. In front of the flashlight I put a colored piece of plastic so the light hitting you is colored. Then I change the plastic to one with a (slightly) different color. I do this 120 times per second. That is a typical consumer display.

    Now imagine I am shining a colored flashlight directly in your face. Then I turn it off and grab a flashlight of a different color and shine it in your face. Imagine I do that 120 times per second. That is an LED billboard.

    Which do you think is more likely to give you a headache?

    One final complication - the brightness of the LEDs is variable over time, they received a modulated signal rather than a steady voltage, so at lower refresh rates there will be a noticeable ripple across the image, similar to how early CRT screens could look.

    Increasing the refresh rate hides a lot of these problems.


  • The border is already closed to illegal travel, that’s why such travel is illegal.

    The border is not impenetrable - it is over a thousand miles of mostly difficult terrain - and enforcing entry requirements is difficult for those reasons.

    The single most effective way to reduce illegal immigration is to punish businesses for employing illegal immigrants. As with everything else, as long as a market exists then there will be an economic incentive to break the law. This is true for drugs, prostitution, Russian oil, etc.

    The federal government essentially enables the employment of migrants because many industries, particularly food harvesting and processing, could not operate without this labor. The consequence of the choice to not punish these companies is more migrants seeking the same economic opportunity.

    Fix the problem at that end and illegal border crossings will drop dramatically.


  • Chevron deference means that federal agencies (FDA, SEC, OSHA, etc) can regulate their respective areas without Congress needing to pass a law for each regulation.

    This is important because Congress moves incredibly slowly, and there are far far too many specific instances that would need to be legislated - there is literally not enough time spent in session.

    Overturning Chevron would make things like lead in gasoline legal once again - it was only ‘banned’ by an EPA rule, congress also didn’t specify what actions to take in the Asbestos Hazard Emergency Respond Act.

    The Safe Drinking Water Act, Clean Air act, and so on would effectively be repealed. These were acts of Congress, but the text of these laws does not spell our allowed levels of various pollutants and punishments for exceeding them, so it would be toothless.

    In short, it would be an absolute disaster. Even if you think there are too many regulations, eliminating all of them, across nearly all facets of life, overnight is the worst way to go about this imaginable.




    1. Hans has admitted to cheating in the past
    2. Hans played a near-perfect game as black against the best player in the world who hadn’t lost as white in years
    3. Hans made some suspiciously good moves quickly, without much time passing
    4. Magnus played a very rare opening that Hans was somehow able to perfectly respond to without skipping a beat

    From these, many people think he cheated. The vibrating butt plug is unlikely, but what is more likely is that Magnus’ prep got leaked and Hans was able to hyper-prepare for a specific line of play.