• 7 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • You need to roll two dice to get a sum of seven. Consider two fair dice: No matter what the first dice lands on, there’s a 1/6 probability that the second dice lands on the number you need to get a total of seven.

    Consider now that one dice is weighted such that it always lands on 6. After you’ve thrown this dice, you throw the second dice, which has a 1/6 chance of landing on 1, so the probability of getting seven is still 1/6.

    Of course, the order of the dice being thrown is irrelevant, and the same argument holds no matter how the first dice is weighted. Essentially, the probability of getting seven total is unaffected by the “first” dice, so it’s 1/6 no matter what.







  • I do believe most western armies have gone a bit too far into “a few advanced” over “many simple”.

    If I’m going to war I would prefer to have 200 Leopard 2A4 with me over having 20 Leopard 2A8. Same goes for aircraft: I would rather have 100 F16 than 10 F35. If only because a realistic war has a long front, and those few pieces of advanced equipment can’t be everywhere at once.

    We shouldn’t forget that during WWII, the allies typically had the technologically inferior armour, but won out because it was easier to build and maintain, and they had more of it.







  • While this is an amazing operation, and has definitely permanently crippled the russian strategic air force, it’s probably not a turning point.

    Russia needs 1-2 of these planes operational to deliver its strike packages (at least the ones we’ve seen until now). That likely means 4-6 planes total to account for down-time.

    This war will end when russia runs out of heavy equipment (we’re getting closer every day), burns through its forces even faster than now (has been accelerating the past years due to shortages of armour), sees further drops in recruitment (it is dropping due to massive casualty rates), and unarmored russians on the frontline without heavy weapons begin to break and flee under Ukrainian assaults.

    Ukraine is working very hard to preserve its forces and materiel, while russia is burning through both at an amazingly unsustainable rate. European military production is increasing by the day, so sooner or later the scales will tip in Ukraines favour, and when they do, the russians won’t have much to fight back with.