The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed on February 5 that Russian forces have begun to prepare for their anticipated Summer 2026 offensive, which Mashovets forecasted will likely begin as soon as late April 2026.[5] Mashovets assessed that Russian forces will likely focus on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk direction and/or the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia City direction.

Mashovets noted that Russian forces are struggling to seize the necessary starting positions to launch the summer offensive in the coming months, as Russian forces have become bogged down in achieving tactical objectives in these directions and are failing to advance rapidly enough to meet the Russian military command’s deadlines. Mashovets assessed that the Russian military command does not want to use its strategic reserves, which Mashovets reported that Russian command has been trying to accumulate since Fall 2025, in order to accelerate these preparatory tactical actions as doing so would reduce consume reserves needed for the summer campaign.

ISW has observed reports that Russia has been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025, potentially to facilitate such an offensive, but has been struggling to replace its losses in Ukraine and has had to deploy operational reserves to support ongoing combat operations.[6] The Russian military command will likely have to choose between deploying its likely limited strategic reserves now to better prepare for the summer offensive or risk using the strategic reserve later in the summer but from less advantageous positions.