Russian civilians in Crimea probably should get the fuck out now.

The world is severely underestimating how fucked the russian war machine is. It really pisses me off how most journalism outlets cover this like there are two powers slugging it out late into a boxing match roughly equal but battered when what this is was a desperate last flailing attack by a boxer who is bloodied, collapsing and utterly getting stomped by the other boxer who is messed up but not collapsing onto the ground.

Russia ran at Ukraine and threw everything it had in a hail mary trying to grind down Ukrainian resolve by targetting heating infrastructure over the winter and the strategy didn’t work… the gamble failed and now Russia is stuck with the blowback from a shitty gamble that DID NOT pan out with the terrifying prospect for their war effort of a dawning spring where Ukraine has the initiative. Russia is going to get fucked up by Ukraine bad this summer, which doesn’t mean Ukraine will necessarily launch a major counter-offensive but rather that Ukraine will smash Russian attacks to pieces in a way that shatters the Russian military apart from the completely unsustainable losses. Every place Russia attacks will get obliterated decisively by localized Ukrainian counterattack and it will devastate what is left of any momentum russia still has.

The biggest reason this pisses me off is that Trump and other shitheads in the west will immediately jump to “Look at Ukraine breaking international law by attacking Russia!” from “sorry but Ukraine will inevitably lose to Russia so we should just give up helping Ukraine” because the international community has not been properly educated on the reality of the Ukraine war as it has evolved in the last several months. Pro-Russian voices will be able to sell this according to the narrative they prefer because the media hasn’t been pointing out how Russia has been utterly bluffing about its strength.