• fizzle@quokk.au
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    24 hours ago

    a closure will no longer crash the world economy

    I don’t think we will reach that point in a meaningful timeframe.

    My understanding of the global oil market is rudimentary but… even if we were only using half the oil we presently are when the strait was shut down, the same portion would likely be coming from there, so the “shock” would still be the same because increasing production elsewhere to increase supply is non-trivial.

    That said, if a big chunk of transportation infrastructure has been “decarbonised” then sure, fuel costs might increase while transport costs are less effected.

    • emergencyfood@sh.itjust.works
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      15 hours ago

      even if we were only using half the oil we presently are when the strait was shut down, the same portion would likely be coming from there, so the “shock” would still be the same

      The same fraction of oil production, yes, but a much smaller fraction of total energy production.

      You would still have shortages of specific fractions that have non-energy uses (like Helium or plastics), but at least fuel would be less affected.