“It seems likely that the damage to Russia’s productive capacity from the loss of western technology and key supplies will increase over time,” writes independent economist Roger Bootle.
“Moreover, the medium-term outlook for its supply capacity has been severely dented by the loss of so many soldiers in the Ukraine war – and more importantly, by the exodus of so many well-qualified young people who wished to escape both the Putin regime and the prospect of call-up.”
As soon as the war ends, sanctions will be lifted. That means gas exports to the Eu, no oil price cap, being able to purchase Western components and so forth. That would give the economy quite a bit of support. Also workers returning from the front helps.
The question is if and how much reparations Ukraine gets and how much trade would come back, after breaking so many contracts.
You have to keep in mind that Russia spends their national wealth fund and fossil fuel money on the war. The average Russia never sees that money.
You think so? I think for starters that depends on the outcome of the war and any agreements made. Second there does not seem to be an upside to lifting sanctions across the board for example on western chips and components. Keeping the military industrial complex of the Russians hobbled for as long as possible means less speed of rearmament, and the EU will be ramping up theirs, meaning this limits their competition.