Republik Königsberg here we go…

Doubt the Israel plan. Syria and Sudan are pretty good places to show morality is relative. At least with some propaganda.

The problem is that an end of the war means thousands of unemployed men with actual war experience running around in Russia. If Putin can not show what he gained in the last two years, during which a lot of those men lost their friends and maybe family, those men might get some ideas. Wagner marched on Moscow after all.

So Putin just gambles that the West gives up on Ukraine. That is the only way he can actually show something.

Leopard1 is a German tank although an old one. So maintaing them is entirly possible for Germany. The idea is probably to trade them for some other tanks, which can be send to Ukraine. The Leopard2 line is at capacity for the next couple years and there is no other tank being activly produced in the EU right now. The only other option is the K2 production in Poland, but that is a South Korean tank design and they do not want their weapons in Ukraine either. Lots of Europeans have asked. The Leclerc production line is still around, but currently closed.

and the nasty part with that is, that the only option to end Yemens strike on shipping by force, is to hit them on the ground before they can launch. The US tried to do that and then realized that they did not have enough ammounition to actually destroy the Yemenis. With Iran it is much worse and China invading Taiwan would be a similar problem, but on an even more massive scale.

That is why the US has announced that they will protect US infrastructure in the region and not Israeli. That is not normal at all.

and Taiwan becomes safer, the clearer it is that the West will support it in case of an invasion.

However the bad part is that this drives up the oil price helping Russia.

They already launched drones against Israel and some of them got shot down by the Saudis.

Iran produces 5% of global oil and there are a lot more oil producers in the region, which might end up getting involved. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraw, Kuwait and Qatar come to mind. We did see Iran attacking Saudi oil production a few years ago, so this might happen again. Hopefully not, but still.

This is part of the road bridge.

“The EU was the fourth largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in December, their imports accounting for 17 per cent (EUR 2.5 bn) of the top five purchasers. LNG comprised the largest share of the EU’s purchases of Russia’s fossil fuels (39 per cent), followed by pipeline gas (38 per cent),” according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea).

Pipeline gas was flowing mostly via Ukraine, which has been cut off. LNG is really stupid though.

Probably fits on: !meanwhileongrad@sh.itjust.works

There are tanks and so forth near Finland and Estonia as well. However everything else is empty, which is unusual. In normal times Russia has its forces deeper inside the country, so they are not destroyed at the first day of a potential invasion and more importantly to defend Moscow in case of a coupe. Given what Wagner did Moscow not having many soldiers around it, is certainly a bold choice.

The problem is that a complete blockade of Russia would drive up the oil price. Russia can probably still move around sanctions in some way, which would allow them to sell oil at high prices. Hence you got the price cap. However thanks to Trump destroying the US and somewhat global economy and OPEC increasing production, lowering Russian oil exports becomes much easier.

That is why it only happens now.

The big one are the 200 additional vessels of the Russian shadow fleet. That fleet has a total size of about 600 vessels so that is going to hurt.

People looking at Satellite data concluded that the stockpiles dried up in late 2024.

Which makes sense, as repairing those tanks, would take some time, then bringing them to the front and then Ukraine needs time to destroy them. So it makes sense that it slows down about now.

Great to see the Russians agreeing with the ceasefire. /s

Latest pole was 57% for the Euro and 41% against with 2% undecided. To be fair that is the EU asking and it might be different depending on the pollster and the poll is a year old, but they are certainly not fully against it, so it will never happen.

For Ukraine, that just makes sense. Most of Ukraines trade is with countries using the Euro. They are in Europe and actually border the Eurozone with Slovakia. Romania is working hard on adopting the Euro too. Obviously Poland and Hungary also have to adopt the Euro at some point, as they are EU members without an opt out. Ukraine wants to join the EU, so it has to also agree to adopting the Euro at some point.

Most certainly. A great parade should have fireworks.

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