In short:
A new report on the business case for Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop has prompted the federal government to request the state government “come forward and explain”.
The Infrastructure Australia report casts doubt over the financial viability of Premier Jacinta Allan’s signature project.
Victorian government ministers faced intense questioning from reporters on Saturday over the transparency of their costings for the $34.5 billion rail project.
The report by Infrastructure Australia said the advisory body had low confidence in the $34.5 billion cost estimate for stage 1 of the orbital train line to connect Box Hill to Cheltenham, with a potential cost blowout said to pose a “major risk” to the project’s viability.
It also said the Victorian government’s business case lacked detail and overstated the project’s benefits, in part because it assessed the first two stages together when instead they will be delivered up to 18 years apart.
It frustrates me a bit that all the coverage is negative. Yes, the government needs to do their homework and I fully agree that the costings need to be updated and the business case for SRL North and East split in order to carry out a proper assessment.
However, every article I’ve read on this almost completely ignores all the positive parts of the Infrastructure Australia report. On almost every one of the review themes in the IA report, the SRL is referred to in a positive manner. E.g.
The proposal demonstrates strong alignment to Victoria State policy documents, in particular Plan Melbourne 2017 – 2050, which states an intent to “maintain a permanent urban growth boundary around Melbourne to create a more consolidated, sustainable city”. However, as SRL East is expected to enhance accessibility for outer suburbs, it may encourage urban expansion as these outer areas become more liveable. The proposal also delivers strong alignment to the Australian Government’s Infrastructure Policy Statement, as it is demonstrated to deliver improvements in productivity, public transport network resilience, equity, connectivity and reduces ongoing transport emissions, which is also consistent with the National Electric Vehicle Strategy (2023) and the Transport and Infrastructure Net Zero Roadmap and Action Plan (2023).
Substantial stakeholder engagement has been and continues to be carried out for SRL East… The depth of stakeholder engagement indicates there is likely sufficient buy-in from stakeholders and the community and that the project responds to their needs.
SRL East is anticipated to directly improve quality of life of Melbournians, particularly in outer and middle suburbs. It is anticipated to deliver improved living affordability through reduced transport costs for households close to the SRL East corridor and along the connecting regional rail network, encourage increased active transport and reduce road network congestion. … Analysis completed as part of the BIC demonstrated that approximately 20% of households located within SRL East precincts will be within the lowest income group (Income Quantile 1), demonstrating that investment in SRL East would benefit more vulnerable members of the community by providing greater housing choice and better access to public transport.
Full report available here: https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop-east
From what I’ve seen, every major project blows out in cost because a realistic quote won’t win the tender process.
