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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 19th, 2023

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  • I’m a bit sceptical of Russia falling in the short to medium term based on Money & Macro video https://youtu.be/YRuYb3H3mvA

    His thesis boils down to economic collapse is generally caused by one or more of:

    1. Capital flight
    2. Blockade (lacking essential imports)
    3. Debt fueled bubble
    4. Popular discontent

    Capital flight is already prevented by capital controls Elvira Nabiullina set.

    Blockade is hard to do without China cooperating.

    Debt fueled bubble is unlikely since household and government debt is relatively low compared to other western countries.

    Which leaves popular discontent. Putin is still pretty popular in Russia despite everything which means he can still use his popularity as a resource to go further down the war economy path. Since Russia has only used 1 out of 4 main tools to stabilise a war economy.

    We should be looking out for wage controls, price controls and shutting down of industries, all levers that can be pulled that really affect people’s lives. Work for shit wages and buy limited selection of goods and the local cinema was shut down so people can work in an artillery shell factory.

    In his opinion the Russian economy still can increase military spending by a large amount without collapse but not without taking it closer to collapse due to popular discontent.

    If Ukraine can keep the oil production in Russia low I think it could really speed run the entire process. However, Putin is a tricky bitch so I wouldn’t count him out. If he can get the oil production back up and running by mobilising workers and build for redundancy the war could still go on for years.



  • I live in Iceland and we try to predict volcanic activity all the time and it’s off by weeks or months. To be fair, that’s a blink of an eye on a geological scale so it’s pretty accurate but the nature of the problem is that you have so many forces that all interact with each other.

    It’s pretty similar to “how far can you tip the chair back before it falls” but we don’t know the size, weight and shape of the chair really well. You just need one fracture in the rock from previous earthquake to throw all the calculations off.

    I don’t know the context of the post but I imagine it’s media related, like a seismologist saying “could be as soon as tomorrow” and the journalist just saying “earthquake tomorrow”. Also seismologist don’t shut up is true.




  • Step one, write in a dream journal or just try to remember the dream as soon as you wake up. Doing this will improve your dream memory instead of it just fading away.

    Step two, have a check to see if you’re dreaming as a habit. Holding your nose closed and breathing through it is a nice one since you’ll be able to breath anyway in a dream.

    Step three, establish cues, like every time you walk through a door or whatever just so you’re doing it frequently, the more the better.

    Step four, wait until you get a dream where you try breathing through your nose. You’ll become lucid instantly and gain control over the dream.

    Step five is just exploration of how to maintain the lucid dream state. Generally it’s very exciting to have a lucid dream but excitement wakes you up. Spinning around in circles and trying to involve all senses such as touch, smell, taste etc will help you make the dream clearer and more real.

    I used to be into this and had a blast flying around, teleporting, conjuring and whatnot.




  • I’d recommend starting by hosting a nextcloud instance.

    1. Get a desktop computer, pretty much anything will do but having room to add more HDD is important.
    2. Install Linux distro like Ubuntu or something
    3. Get a static IP so your IP doesn’t change
    4. Setup a router port forwarding rule so that an outside address points to your nextcloud instance.

    Then do some optional steps:

    • Automatically turn on PC when power comes back on (BIOS setting)
    • Startup script that runs nextcloud on startup
    • Install docker to manage services like nextcloud
    • Add some remote desktop thingy to manage your server from your laptop (ssh is also good but a steeper learning curve)
    • Get a NAS for storing data with redundancy.
    • Have some other form of backup like your current Google account, cloud provider or one of your mates with a similar setup.

    That’s pretty much what you need to start hosting your own files, then later on you can setup a email server, media server like Jellyfin, homepage and everything.

    Just go one step at a time and when you hit an issue you can and should ask Google or ChatGPT. Remember, everything exposed to the Internet is vulnerable so take security seriously. Always have everything protected by a decently long password, pairing requirement with your server confirming adding a device or an API key.



  • Most recently when I used Windows was because of work. I’ve been seeing these posts for a while now and I can make some valid arguments.

    • Anti cheat games
    • Adobe products (Web is not the same)
    • MS Office desktop
    • Work has processes linked to Windows specifically (server that only works on IIS Express maybe?)
    • Big legacy codebase where they don’t match filename casing.
    • Specific Visual Studio scripts or plugins for a DSL.
    • Security requirements that need windows APIs (like mandating crowdstrike)
    • Music production with a Ableton (it works but it’s not noob friendly).
    • You have deep knowledge of Windows and getting up to speed on Linux would take a year without guarantees you have a comparable system.
    • Your client is on Windows and you’re making a desktop Windows app that’s not cross platform.

    Thankfully none of these apply to me so I’m on Linux but I can see how this is an issue.


  • It depends on the distro. Bazzite might get in the way since it’s a more closed distro if you want to do docker stuff. I personally managed but setting up extra hard drives that docker (podman) uses, but it was tricky. You’ll not have issue browsing the Web or installing most apps though.

    Nobara might be a good choice although the user base is not that big so you might have to migrate in a couple of years.

    Otherwise I’d stick to regular distros since they have great support and will stick around for a long time such as Fedora or Kubuntu. I’ve also heard Endavour is really good these days.

    You should consider choosing a distro based on the Wayland integration since you can get HDR fractional scaling and variable refresh rate with them.


  • Not all companies need to grow. Some do perfectly fine by just maintaining their current output like a owner operated single person plumbing company.

    Another example can be Walmart, they don’t need to grow but investors prefer growth so it becomes a focus.

    There are some companies that need absolutely to grow to survive. This is seen a lot in tech where in order for the business model to make sense they would need some big quantity of users.

    Let’s say you got seeded 10M and managed to get to a minimal product with 10k users that get you $2 in revenue monthly but your cost are around 50k monthly. It means you’re making a loss but with 100k users you’d make a profit. To get to 100k you need more investment but to justify that investment being sound you need show growth.

    So in general if being bigger gets you economies of scale then making a loss early is fine as long as you can get the investor money you need to survive. So to survive as a business you need to grow.

    Those are two ends of a spectrum and everything in between exists as well. So quick answer would be “Companies don’t always need to grow but some really do because their business model only works at a different scale”.