for me RAM is a perfected technology, new buses will come, more speed, but it will fundamentally be the same manufacturing process, same materials. The prospect is that LLMs will keep getting larger, more RAM will be required, and the prices will keep getting higher, or along the curve, while the demand will keep up with it because everything has RAM in it. Do you see a point in the future where the industry forks out of this, and there’s an alternative where the end user is not affected as much from the demand of this resource?
Pretty sure this problem goes away once the Chinese are able to produce either equivalent ram or at least something good enough for manufactures to start using.
ChatGPT will run out of money April 2027.
Also, more adaptation to Chinese-made RAM. The difference is negligible.
I can’t wait till I can purchase China RAM! 👌
1 of 2 things will need to happen for the shortage to be resolved.
- A new fabrication will need to be brought online or
- The companies that have purchased the fabrication time cancel their order because they go bust.
I believe 2 will happen before 1 because 1 will take several years to happen.
Gamers Nexus made a video recently where they were discussing a new Chinese company/manufacturer in the RAM game. It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.
For your second point/option: I agree something like this will happen first. But I don’t know if it will be a cancellation on all “fronts.” Microsoft’s CEO stated they HAVE the (DIM) RAM, but they DON’T have the GPU’s. So Nvidia is behind on manufacturing, but Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have actually got the stock, they’re just ONLY selling to corporations right now (or arbitrarily inflating prices for consumers to meet the inflated price they’re selling to corporations who already have more than they need, but refuse to stop buying).
It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.
- Technology breakthrough: Manufacturing more ram for less money.
That’s just a more handwavy version of 1. Unless you are saying that new technology will come along that will make existing fabrication facilities capable of higher throughput without substantial upgrades/expansions to those facilities? It seems unlikely to happen any sooner than 1 does either way, unless there is a high readiness level technology that’s going to massively disrupt the established field of industrial engineering in the next year that I haven’t heard anything about
Then the current companies buying it will just buy more. So far there isn’t significant movement in the space to try and do more with less, and the current strategy is to just keep throwing more resources at it.
I’m not sure there’s a point where production could eclipse corporate orders with the current path things appear to be on.
It will likely be a combination of both. As prices increase, new fabs become more financially lucrative and viable. Demand will also fall as the bubble bursts, but likely will not go back to that it was either.
The Chinese could do some coordinated push to take marketshare if they have state backing and are willing to accept medium term losses.
But then every western government will not allow the import of those products because of “national security”
I expect that China is likely investing in 1 due to industrial policy. When 2 happens, it is going to collapse the industry.
Agreed. They are building new factories now that will come online in several years
CXMT is already making RAM.
https://www.cxmt.com/en/product.html
https://www.techspot.com/review/3089-ddr5-made-in-china/
Might have to sneak it through Canada.
Who are “they”? The current crisis is not due to Samsung, SK Hynix or Micron having capacity issues. They don’t want to up their production currently as they plan for the AI bubble to burst and sitting on product when that happens will be costly.
Don’t worry – monthly RAM subscriptions solve this!
60 minutes of use for free with subscription. Must sign up for automatic payments.
And then each additional 15 min increments are $20. And the timer is always rounded up per session.
That’s nividia’s business plan.
Also after 12. Months, the monthly subscription will double and hopefully you won’t notice since the payments are automatically taken out of your account.
Let’s talk about ram leasing ! We can offer you a brand new pc if you get our 72 months ram leasing contact ! I will even add a ram dissipator if you get our fidelity card !
Either the AI bubble pops and the demand drops, or the AI industry becomes stable and supply increases.
I’m inclined to bet on the bubble popping. There are real businesses to be built on top of generative AI, but most of the current players have high costs and a long way to go before their revenue comes even close.
I’d say it’s certainly possible for the economics and business strategy to shift in a manner where consumers get a much worse deal like this indefinitely. But it’s really haad to say if it’s actually going to play out that way or we experience a return to the previous equilibrium
If enough manufacturers exit the consumer space, like Micron is doing …
It will end when western society crashes in 2 more years.
Maybe through CXL you’ll be able to “download more RAM” (renting it, really)
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But this is a supply problem. Not a demand one.
This is like that meme where one person is pointing at a 6 and the other is seeing 9.
Supply demand economics? did the Easter Bunny teach you that theory?
