As for “what will happen next”, the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don’t seem to want to make that kind of deal.
So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.
This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn’t popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.
My sense is that Trump is going for the “we’re at war and therefore it would be imprudent to have elections” argument. I agree that this will drag on, but I think it depends on if Trump is able to successfully pull off the first ever skipped election in US history.
I don’t think his supreme court would go that low to allow it, but…the chance that he succeeds is not 0%, which fucking sucks.
That’s my fear too. He wants as much power as possible. He started jan 6th to stay in power he’s easily capable of starting a war to stop an election. My fear is he’ll use war to stay on past his 2 terms
As for “what will happen next”, the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don’t seem to want to make that kind of deal.
So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.
This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn’t popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.
Don’t get my hopes up
My sense is that Trump is going for the “we’re at war and therefore it would be imprudent to have elections” argument. I agree that this will drag on, but I think it depends on if Trump is able to successfully pull off the first ever skipped election in US history.
I don’t think his supreme court would go that low to allow it, but…the chance that he succeeds is not 0%, which fucking sucks.
That’s my fear too. He wants as much power as possible. He started jan 6th to stay in power he’s easily capable of starting a war to stop an election. My fear is he’ll use war to stay on past his 2 terms