“It seems likely that the damage to Russia’s productive capacity from the loss of western technology and key supplies will increase over time,” writes independent economist Roger Bootle.
“Moreover, the medium-term outlook for its supply capacity has been severely dented by the loss of so many soldiers in the Ukraine war – and more importantly, by the exodus of so many well-qualified young people who wished to escape both the Putin regime and the prospect of call-up.”
Policy makers knew this going in. Only the uninformed expected a rapid effect.
It achieved a lot, freezing half of Russia’s “rainy day fund” limiting their ability to prop up their economy. It also limited their ability to scale up their war economy and war production. The downstream effects of the war are even going to be more catastrophic once it all unravels, the 90’s electric boogaloo.
This is why policy makers are so worried, as it seems Russia (Putin & co) only have one path forward, keep the economy of war footing and keep the wars going. Because the moment it stops there will be no military to speak of, no money to fix it, no income from business, no jobs, no money for social security, like the 90’s but now no one will be standing by to help.
Bet there will be lots of countries wanting to pick up the pieces…
The safe bet is Russia becoming more and more subordinate to China.
This will be a very tough pill for Russia to swallow. Traditionally Russia was the country with the industrial capacity, know how and wealth of the 2. Now the roles are reversed on all counts.
Pick clean the carcass maybe. But I cannot imagine anyone interested in re-creating a strong Russia. The only worry will be who gets to keep what nukes. Cause there are bound to be so e entrepreneurial types that will see an opportunity to make a few dollar.
CIA would get involved. A few billion dollars probably buys a lot of loose nukes. Non-state actors couldn’t deploy them, anyway.
The nukes is the only thing they have left to bargain with, so russia split up or not, their nuclear arsenal (today and future) will have to go. They won’t be able to maintain them if they don’t give them up or they have be like bargaining with Iran and North Korea.
So a split up and a " reverse Minsk Agreement " seems fitting.
After the Ukraine war noone will ever give up their nukes. At least not all of em.
Yeah that’s a hard one but what to do otherwise?
Maybe also mention what it means to be China’s lil’ bitch?
Oh my…The acrobatics Putin must have been forced to do in front of Xi will cost Russia dearly for a long time.
@mindlight @Badeendje
Two very ruthless men. Quite comfortable having people ‘liquidated.’ The MAN from China looks scary 😱
As soon as the war ends, sanctions will be lifted. That means gas exports to the Eu, no oil price cap, being able to purchase Western components and so forth. That would give the economy quite a bit of support. Also workers returning from the front helps.
The question is if and how much reparations Ukraine gets and how much trade would come back, after breaking so many contracts.
You have to keep in mind that Russia spends their national wealth fund and fossil fuel money on the war. The average Russia never sees that money.
You think so? I think for starters that depends on the outcome of the war and any agreements made. Second there does not seem to be an upside to lifting sanctions across the board for example on western chips and components. Keeping the military industrial complex of the Russians hobbled for as long as possible means less speed of rearmament, and the EU will be ramping up theirs, meaning this limits their competition.