Why: I think it’s mostly a matter of trump wanting to make a name for himself outside of his maga cult. Neocons never liked him, and he hopes this might change it. Plus, a dose of realpolitik in an effort to seem tough usually works.
When: It will have to end soon, otherwise he’ll be shitting in his base. However, while wanting to pull back he’ll realize he has two choices:
Declare “victory” and leave the regime still in power, leaving people (his base included) asking what all these tax dollars were spent on
Keep going, losing more and more support from his isolationist base and then some. Iran is, at present, the most unpopular war from a US polling perspective, so it is highly unlikely there will be a rally-around-the-flag effect for him. Even more unlikely the linger it goes on - a war doesn’t become more popular over time.
How: Airstrikes will continue until the paragraph above has been addressed. And since Trump never reads history, he’s probably way too optimistic, never realizing this simple fact: No country/regime has ever unconditionally surrendered because of conventional airstrikes and bombardment alone.
To quote Sarah Paine (renowned military scholar and historian), once you put your enemy on death ground, meaning they will have to fight on or (probably) die, they will not surrender. Trump never offered the Iran regime an offramp, and while it sucks to be in Iran right now, they have no incentive to surrender.
There’s also nothing to indicate that Iran would completely reopen the strait even if the US up and fucked off. What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
The US sunk 16 of their mine laying ships and has been having to shoot down mine laying drones. No one really going through so no real idea about how many if any mines have gotten through.
I do believe we sank them before they were active along with or near in time to the first decapitation strike. Personally no idea about whether they have more.
What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could use this incident to help normalize relations with other gulf states by pointing out how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.
When you say “his isolationist base” I know that was a talking point early on. Will any part of his base hold him accountable for literally anything ever, though? I would’ve assumed his base is now ecstatic about doing some warmongering no matter what he said five minutes ago?
Time will show. There are some shitheads, such as Nick Fuentes, who have publicly disavowed Trump, and even Alex Jones is having a hard time defending Trump these days. Defection are happening, but any long term effect will probably be seen via a slow trickle and not a sudden drop in approval rating.
The truth is, most people don’t stay up to date on the news, so while the base probably won’t notice that the current Trump talking points are inconsistent at best, come a year or two and they will probably notice that they are objectively worse off after Trump decided to spend billions on a war with Iran for dubious benefits. We will never see a point of “That’s it, fuck you!” on xitter. Suddenly the support will lose critical mass and fade into the background just like the teaparty did.
I’m cautiously optimistic stemming from the fact that ideologies based on hate never succeed in the long run. They either fizzle out, eat themselves, or on rare occasions implode spectacularly.
Trump has also surrounded himself with yes-men, just like this Austrian corporal once did. While Hitler certainly had a loyal staff, they were far from competent; Göhring thought he could bomb UK i to submission. And the rest of the staff were more focused on licking rectoplasm than facing reality.
come a year or two and they will probably notice that they are objectively worse off
This has historically not been the case. Trump supporters are more likely to say things are “great” when asked how the presidents policies have affected them. They are entirely divorced from reality and hang on the presidents words as if their lives depended on it. They accept what he says as truth, and without fail his lackeys repeat those words/lies, things like, “the dow is over 50,000!” that we heard bondi say the other day in a hearing. I think people should be more informed how this is historically similar to nazi germany’s rise to power.
Trump supporters are more likely to say things are “great” when asked how the presidents policies have affected them.
They’re also likely to say “Biden’s policies” were terrible and “trump’s policies” are the best even if they describe Biden’s actual policies as “trump policies” and trump’s actual policies as “Biden’s policies”.
I think that most Trump voters support isolationism symbolically. They want a leader who prioritizes them rather than perceived others, but they don’t actually have a strong opinion about specific foreign policies per se. Attacking Iran does challenge that symbolism, but in the absence of direct effects on their own lives, their trust in Trump’s established “America first” reputation will go a long way.
Some of the more Libertarian ones are rallying around Thomas Massie. He seems like one of the few American politicians who are actually somewhat honest.
No country/regime has ever unconditionally surrendered because of conventional airstrikes and bombardment alone.
Are you forgetting WWII? Japan was setting up for a big American invasion of their islands, expecting millions dead, and then we dropped a nuke. Japan still refused, so we dropped another nuke. Then they surrendered.
You’re assuming that we won’t use nukes, simply because it’s immoral and a huge escalation over nothing. Now look who’s giving the orders. An immoral pedophile who hates anyone mentioning how he’s a pedophile. He’ll do ANYTHING to stop people from mentioning he’s a pedophile. I think that includes nukes. This is the same guy who used the phrase “We’re gonna bomb the shit out of them!”
Its not quite accurate to say bombing alone, yhe only condition Japan had when they tried to surrender before the bombs was the emporer, and that would have gone away as the Soviets got closer.
That situation was different though. Japan was 100% getting invaded and they knew that when the bombs were dropped. Maybe not right away, in the very immediate term. Iran does not believe the US will execute a proper invasion as it has not been credibly threatened. If Iran believed that invasion was imminent, then the calculus would be different.
Why: I think it’s mostly a matter of trump wanting to make a name for himself outside of his maga cult. Neocons never liked him, and he hopes this might change it. Plus, a dose of realpolitik in an effort to seem tough usually works.
When: It will have to end soon, otherwise he’ll be shitting in his base. However, while wanting to pull back he’ll realize he has two choices:
How: Airstrikes will continue until the paragraph above has been addressed. And since Trump never reads history, he’s probably way too optimistic, never realizing this simple fact: No country/regime has ever unconditionally surrendered because of conventional airstrikes and bombardment alone.
To quote Sarah Paine (renowned military scholar and historian), once you put your enemy on death ground, meaning they will have to fight on or (probably) die, they will not surrender. Trump never offered the Iran regime an offramp, and while it sucks to be in Iran right now, they have no incentive to surrender.
Sounds like putin and ukraine. Just gotta keep killing people to save his ego
There’s also nothing to indicate that Iran would completely reopen the strait even if the US up and fucked off. What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
And even if Iran changed their minds, it’s not like the mines will just disappear
They didn’t release mines (yet) though? Or am I out of the loop?
The US sunk 16 of their mine laying ships and has been having to shoot down mine laying drones. No one really going through so no real idea about how many if any mines have gotten through.
Is that verified and were the ships actually in operation? All I saw was “inactive mine-laying ships”
I do believe we sank them before they were active along with or near in time to the first decapitation strike. Personally no idea about whether they have more.
There have been some, but I’m not sure to which extent.
If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could use this incident to help normalize relations with other gulf states by pointing out how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.
Long term it’s better for Iran if stuff keeps flowing through and nobody moves away or pipelines around the Strait.
Before that was just economically infeasible, but now it’s being shown as a massive vulnerability and there’s no going back.
Unless Iran can make it look so expensive by comparison again.
When you say “his isolationist base” I know that was a talking point early on. Will any part of his base hold him accountable for literally anything ever, though? I would’ve assumed his base is now ecstatic about doing some warmongering no matter what he said five minutes ago?
Time will show. There are some shitheads, such as Nick Fuentes, who have publicly disavowed Trump, and even Alex Jones is having a hard time defending Trump these days. Defection are happening, but any long term effect will probably be seen via a slow trickle and not a sudden drop in approval rating.
The truth is, most people don’t stay up to date on the news, so while the base probably won’t notice that the current Trump talking points are inconsistent at best, come a year or two and they will probably notice that they are objectively worse off after Trump decided to spend billions on a war with Iran for dubious benefits. We will never see a point of “That’s it, fuck you!” on xitter. Suddenly the support will lose critical mass and fade into the background just like the teaparty did.
I’m cautiously optimistic stemming from the fact that ideologies based on hate never succeed in the long run. They either fizzle out, eat themselves, or on rare occasions implode spectacularly.
Trump has also surrounded himself with yes-men, just like this Austrian corporal once did. While Hitler certainly had a loyal staff, they were far from competent; Göhring thought he could bomb UK i to submission. And the rest of the staff were more focused on licking rectoplasm than facing reality.
This has historically not been the case. Trump supporters are more likely to say things are “great” when asked how the presidents policies have affected them. They are entirely divorced from reality and hang on the presidents words as if their lives depended on it. They accept what he says as truth, and without fail his lackeys repeat those words/lies, things like, “the dow is over 50,000!” that we heard bondi say the other day in a hearing. I think people should be more informed how this is historically similar to nazi germany’s rise to power.
They’re also likely to say “Biden’s policies” were terrible and “trump’s policies” are the best even if they describe Biden’s actual policies as “trump policies” and trump’s actual policies as “Biden’s policies”.
Nice choice of words. Now I have a new band to listen to.
I think that most Trump voters support isolationism symbolically. They want a leader who prioritizes them rather than perceived others, but they don’t actually have a strong opinion about specific foreign policies per se. Attacking Iran does challenge that symbolism, but in the absence of direct effects on their own lives, their trust in Trump’s established “America first” reputation will go a long way.
Some of the more Libertarian ones are rallying around Thomas Massie. He seems like one of the few American politicians who are actually somewhat honest.
Are you forgetting WWII? Japan was setting up for a big American invasion of their islands, expecting millions dead, and then we dropped a nuke. Japan still refused, so we dropped another nuke. Then they surrendered.
You’re assuming that we won’t use nukes, simply because it’s immoral and a huge escalation over nothing. Now look who’s giving the orders. An immoral pedophile who hates anyone mentioning how he’s a pedophile. He’ll do ANYTHING to stop people from mentioning he’s a pedophile. I think that includes nukes. This is the same guy who used the phrase “We’re gonna bomb the shit out of them!”
Its not quite accurate to say bombing alone, yhe only condition Japan had when they tried to surrender before the bombs was the emporer, and that would have gone away as the Soviets got closer.
That’s why I said “conventional”, which nukes aren’t
That situation was different though. Japan was 100% getting invaded and they knew that when the bombs were dropped. Maybe not right away, in the very immediate term. Iran does not believe the US will execute a proper invasion as it has not been credibly threatened. If Iran believed that invasion was imminent, then the calculus would be different.